Thursday, November 8, 2018

The Shmot Pippl Problem

We have some new people in Congress, and it is, in my opinion, a Good Thing that at least some of them are knowledgeable about science and subjects closely related to science. PZ Myers points out the list is still distressingly short. Yep, medicine and engineering are not, strictly speaking, sciences, though they very much use scientific results, and there are people in medicine and engineering doing science. It's just 5% of Congress, but it's better than nothing.

But more importantly, intelligence and education don't make one immune to bad ideas. I'm still thinking about that, though it's been a year or so since I first posted this meme. The point is, I can't rely on my own intelligence and education alone, nor on that of another person, to decide if a given idea is a good idea or a bad idea. Ideas have to have more than an ad hominem argument going for them.

Unfortunately shmot pippl are really good at defending ideas, whether they're good or bad ideas.

"If this idea is true (good), then I want to believe it to be true (good). If this idea is false (bad), then I want to believe it to be false (bad)." ~ The rational person's mantra.

This mantra is derived from the litany of Tarsky: "If the box contains a diamond, I desire to believe that the box contains a diamond; if the box does not contain a diamond, I desire to believe that the box does not contain a diamond; let me not become attached to beliefs I may not want." The point is that even if we rilly like an idea, rilly rilly lurve it, we need to be aware that our desire for it to be true (good) is a serious problem. This is particularly true when we've listened to someone else, and what they said really sounded good.

See, the problem isn't that we don't know how to convince others of our ideas - that's distressingly easy, in fact. The problem is that we are too easily convinced, and when we're not convinced it's because we've already been convinced by someone else. It's no accident that the USA is divided about 50/50 along partisan lines, even though us partisans are each convinced that the other side is terrible.

If you agree with me, is it because you were easily convinced, or because you've looked at independent evidence? How do you know? Here are some links for your consideration.

Additional references.

  • Hovland, C. I., Janis, I. L., & Kelley, H. H. (1953). Communication and persuasion; psychological studies of opinion change. New Haven, CT, US: Yale University Press.